美《經濟學人》以「給中國的點心」形容台灣

作者: SkyMirage (Stardust) 看板: Gossiping
標題: [爆卦] 美《經濟學人》以「給中國的點心」形容台灣
時間: Sun Sep 25 06:16:23 2011

原文連結
http://www.economist.com/node/21530121


原文轉錄及不負責任翻譯

The United States and Taiwan

Dim sum for China

Why America should not walk away from Taiwan

Sep 24th 2011 | from the print edition

EVER since the Nationalist KMT, the losing side in the Chinese civil war,
fled to Taiwan in 1949, China’s Communist rulers have reserved the right to
take back by force what they see as a renegade province. When America broke
off diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 and recognised China instead,
Congress passed a law obliging the administration to “provide Taiwan with
arms of a defensive character” to guard against a hostile mainland.

自從戰敗的國民黨逃到台灣之後，中共就沒有放棄過要武力收復這個叛亂的省分。
1979年美國外交上承認中共後，美國國會制定了台灣關係法，稱必要時協防台灣。


That support seems to be wobbling. This week Barack Obama agreed to refurbish
Taiwan’s ageing fleet of F-16 fighter jets (see article), but Chinese
objections made the deal less advantageous than it would have been.
Meanwhile, a small but influential chorus of academics and policymakers is
arguing that these should be America’s last arms sales to Taiwan.

然而這層關係最近有點動搖，原因是歐巴馬同意幫台灣翻修F-16，但是中國在靠腰。
部分學界和政界人士認為這將是最後一次美國對台軍售。

What has changed to justify this shift? Little in Taiwan itself. These days
the country is a thriving democracy, worthier of support than the
dictatorship it was when American backing was rock solid. Nor does Taiwan
look better able to defend itself. The main shift in the military balance
across the Taiwan Strait in recent years has been a massive one in China’s
favour. More than 1,000 missiles on its eastern seaboard now point at Taiwan,
and China’s navy and air force have hugely expanded. Refitting the old F-16s
is a token gesture, and China knows it.

到底花生省魔術？台灣這幾年來不是一直是個民主模範生嗎？當年美國在援助台灣的
時候明明台灣還是個獨裁政權咧！面對近年中國軍力的擴增，以及超過一千枚的導彈
，台灣現在看起來不像是有辦法自我防衛啊！就算是翻修了F-16，感覺也是跟中國作
作樣子而已。


Turning a paler shade of green (綠吱陰影退散!!)

Two main arguments are made in America to justify abandoning Taiwan. The
first is that its ally is now a strategic liability. Under the “blue” (KMT)
president, Ma Ying-jeou, cross-straits relations are better than they have
ever been. But the “green” opposition is more nationalistic. The fear is
that one day Taiwan will make a formal declaration of independence. China
says it will respond to that with force. Some in America fret that in backing
Taiwan, the United States risks being dragged into conflict, even nuclear war.

支持美國放棄台灣的理由有兩點：
第一，台灣現在已經不是戰略夥伴，而是戰略義務(或者其實是累贅)。
馬英九上任之後兩岸關係達到前所未有的高潮，反而是綠營取代當年殺朱拔毛的國民黨，
搖身一變成了愛國主義者。有人擔心這樣下去，美國會被捲入台海戰戰爭。


How realistic is that fear? Under the previous green president, Chen
Shui-bian, Taiwan’s relations with both China and America plumbed new lows.
Mr Chen’s successor as leader of the greens, Tsai Ing-wen, is running
against Mr Ma in the presidential election in January. But she is a lot more
moderate than Mr Chen, and the provocateurs who want to declare formal
independence are mainly old and fading. Younger green politicians may be
nationalistic, but they seem more pragmatic and understand the imperative of
American support.

這個擔憂也是有理由的，看看土城王爆氣的八年，中國和美國都在不爽台灣。
繼任者蔡英文就溫和多了；當年那些教唆台獨的老人都快死光了，年輕的綠吱感覺上
嘴巴說愛國，但是身體卻很誠實，知道沒有美國撐腰就只能自己在角落靠腰。


The second argument is that, even if it never came to war, Taiwan would still
be an obstacle to better Sino-American relations. Give China what it wants,
runs this line of thinking, and it will co-operate more on a host of issues
ranging from nuclear proliferation to climate change. Rather than provoking
China by arming Taiwan and patrolling the seas, it would be better to placate
it, and throw it the morsel of Taiwan.

第二點理由是，就算台灣不引戰，台灣也是美中關係的一個絆腳石。美國在防止核武
散佈和全球氣候議題上都需要中國的妥協。與其激怒中國，不如把台灣這塊小餅乾丟
給中國爽。


But to walk away from Taiwan would in effect mean ceding to China the terms
of unification. Over the long run, that will not improve Sino-American
relations. Five thousand years of Chinese diplomatic history suggest it is
more likely to respect a strong state than a weak and vacillating one.
Appeasement would also probably increase China’s appetite for regional
domination. Its “core interests” in the area seem to be growing. To Chinese
military planners, Taiwan is a potential base from which to push out into the
Pacific. At minimum, that would unsettle Japan to the north and the
Philippines to the south.

不過完全不鳥台灣的話就等於在統一議題上面讓步了。長遠看來對於美中關係倒不是
好事，綜觀五千年中國外交史，這個國家一直都是對於強權比較尊重(幹請求來源)，
在台灣問題上給中國一點甜頭是符合中國的核心利益的。以中國的戰略角度來說，
台灣是切斷日本菲律賓島弧聯線的薩爾那加瞭望塔加行星要塞，也是兵推太平洋的門戶。


Strong American backing for Taiwan has served the region well so far. It has
improved, rather than damaged, cross-straits relations, for Mr Ma would never
have felt able to open up to China without it, and it has been the foundation
for half a century of peace and security throughout East Asia (see Banyan).
To abandon Taiwan now would bring out the worst in China, and lead the region
’s democracies to worry that America might be willing to let them swing too.
That is why, as long as China insists on the right to use force in Taiwan,
America should continue to support the island.

美國幫台灣撐腰半個世紀成效至今還ok，甚至多少幫助了台海關係。對馬英九來說，想
要跟中國稱兄道弟平起平坐，也不可能在沒有台美關係的基礎上。美國放棄台灣對中國
不見得是好事，對於東亞地區的民主盟友來說，也等同於告訴他們有一天美國老大也會
放你們去秦皇島當消波塊。這也就是為什麼，就算中國一直威脅武力犯台，美國人還是
要很nice的支持台灣！


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